On a whim from BH, I did this survey a few weeks ago, just prior to Iowa where I picked a bunch of results for the early states. Here is a quick summary e-mail I just received.
It sure is an interesting presidential race - on both sides.
Now that Nevada is in the books, and the Republicans have results in Michigan and South Carolina, it's time for more interim results for the 2008 Presidential Punditology Challenge.
First, a few notes about our collective wisdom. As a group, we got two outcomes right on, and two wrong.
In Michigan, just over 50% of us knew that Mitt Romney would win.
In Nevada, 56% of us knew that Hillary Clinton would win. But only 32% of us knew that Mitt Romney would win. (37% thought John McCain would.)
But we were wild-ass wrong about the South Carolina GOP primary. Only 8% of us picked McCain/Huckabee as the outcome, while 27% picked Huckabee/McCain, 23% picked Huckabee/Romney, and 8% picked Huckabee/Giuliani.
We fared better at picking the Democratic losers. Large percentages of us knew which candidates would drop out by January 14th - 87% Dodd, 75% Biden, 56% Richardson. (67% thought Gravel would be out by now, but oh well.) We thought we knew that Hunter (92%), Keyes (57%), and Thompson (60%) would be out by January 14,
Your score: So far, your score is 100 out of 144 (69.4% right) - and you're ranked #7 out of 563 punditologists.
As a group, taking the most popular pick on each question (our collective wisdom) scores 91 points so far (63% right), and would be tied for 22nd overall.
Even more interestingly, the participants who identified themselves as political consultants scored a collective 97 points so far (67% right), and would be tied for 10th overall -- maybe there's something to the idea of political professionals after all!
7th, baby. In Cross Country, we call that shit 1st Team All Conference.