Granite Dreams

Fueled by an inadvertent late afternoon nap and an 8pm French Press of coffee I can't sleep tonight, and all my thoughts return to last summer which, now that I think about it, may have been the final destination for the biggest dream I have ever had.

I was living in an idyllic setting, had a comfy paycheck, and nearly everything to do with writing about politics and the New Hampshire Primary was new to me. My experience with hands-on primary events did exist, but in all honesty could be counted on one hand.

In 2000 I went to a single Bill Bradley campaign event in Tacoma. In 2003 I saw John Edwards in Manchester in August while I was staying at Harrington Lodge in North Woodstock for cross country training camp living alongside such steely compatriots as Dan Lazarek and Weston Fuhrman. I drove up from Franklin Park in October to hear John Kerry share his wealth of knowledge across the issue spectrum at a pub in Portsmouth.

Then on a January night in 2004, at the zenith of his intrigue, I saw Wes Clark in a high school cafeteria in Litchfield then on the way home to Connecticut, I took the long way through Boston to be closer to the ocean and it snowed nearly a foot in three hours. I pulled over in Westerly, RI to find a Bess Eaton and wound up driving off of a curb because I couldn't tell where the driveway ended and the sidewalk began. At 11 o'clock on a snowy Tuesday in Westerly at a closed donut shop it was as quiet, let me tell you.

That night was when it really set in, the idea of the New Hampshire primary that I had only watched on television as a high school senior four years earlier. It was then that I fell in love with the mountain hotels and their lobby fireplaces, the snowy sidewalks full of sign-wavers (visibility, I would learn to call it), and the cramped town hall meetings. At the Alvirne High cafeteria that night there were maybe 200 people. This time around a late-January event with a third-place polling candidate, 200 attendees would get you laughed off the pages of the blogs at MSNBC and The Atlantic and Time. But that year it felt like something big.

"Why on earth," I wondered, "would two hundred people show up on a cold ass Tuesday night to hear a politician from a state halfway across the country?"

As I pondered this on my way home, having had my first taste of a cold-weather rally, I knew that this was different. Besides, as with most things in life, you don't truly experience it until you do it in cold weather.

It was also the first time, at age 22, that I had ever driven in snow.

Four years later I've worked on a general campaign, written full-time about politics for two thirds of a year, and become a near professional at driving in the snow having lived, among other places, in West Brattleboro, Vermont for a winter where it made sense from a spiritual and fuel economy level to take dirt roads nearly all the way to my job at Mount Snow some twenty miles away.

Here in Washington I can only try my best to remember the snow, and visualize my hands turning red with searing pain as I brushed it off my car with inadequate equipment and clothing on my way to work last December. I can also only imagine what it would be like to see candidates caravaning around the Evergreen State.

When Clinton and Obama came to Seattle, thousands were there to greet them. When John McCain came there were maybe 150. Then again, he spoke at the Westin Hotel ballroom. If I wasn't an absolute presidential junkie, I wouldn't have gone there, either.

But four months earlier I had seen McCain in someone's front yard with forty people around, and at VFW hall with a hundred. And I had seen Clinton with 1,000 and 2,000 and 3,5000. I had seen Obama at Manchester's largest venue with Oprah and, very early on, in Laconia with 500. I knew where the expectations were set, and how much they had grown in less than a year.

In 2000 and 2004, there were no expectations. All I knew was the idea of the New Hampshire primary and how it wasn't unheard of, or irrational, for a presidential aspirant to talk to a general store full of twelve people in an out-of-the-way Lakes region town.

Tonight, when Obama won North Carolina by 15 and Clinton won Indiana by two, the conventional wisdom said that this 2008 batch of the primary season that began in New Hampshire more than a year ago, is finally over. I have been anxiously waiting for Clinton to ceded the nomination since the middle of February. But now that reality has set in and I see it slipping away from me, even though I had paid it the attention of a red headed stepchild for the past two months, I find myself begging for just one more primary. Just one more batch of returns.

I know this dream is over, that for one more person it has become a reality.

But back then, in the summer of 2007, all I could do was sit in the warm weather, drink my coffee, look out at the silhouette of the Holyoke Range and dream. Back then, the dream was still alive and well.

The Great BTBini Predicts New Hampshire

A few notes on the Primary.

Iowa was easty to pick. I had nothin' to lose. But New Hampshire has me nervous. Blood is in the air on the Dem side as the Clintons are on the verge of stopping at nothing to reclaim the driver's seat. Meanwhile, Obama and Edwards are coolly combatting her hits in a loosely connected effort.

Will Granite State voters freak out and buy the Clinton line of being the candidate of Experience and Real Change? Well, last I looked Real Change was the name of a homeless person's newspaper that nobody buys. I think it might be the case again here in New Hampshire.

One of the metrics I use? Yard signs and bumper stickers. I know that is far from scientific...but then again so am I. I saw far more Obama bumper stickers and yard signs than I did Hillary in my NH travels, even before the Iowa win and the recent slate of good poll news for the Illinoisan.

Edwards has performed very well in the last few days, and his newfound close-top-3 viability will help him hold on to some people who otherwise might have bolted for someone more "winnable" (shudder, shudder). He'll also get some Doddites.

Where will the Bideners go? Who the hell knows.

Richardson will stay where Richardson was. A distant fourth. People just never heard his message of Good News. Sad but true.

So, despite the chance of utter failure, I channel the spirit of Pervis "Never Nervous" Ellison (Louisville Edition) and boldly predict the race. To the numbers!

Deez
Obama - 37%
Clinton - 26%
Edwards - 24%
Richardson - 10%
Kucinich - 3%
Gravel - <1%%

A few closing thoughts on the Republicans.

I think Paul's campaign hurt itself by running all of those annoying radio ads. Late in the game they raised all this money, but the tv time was already bought and paid for by the other monied interests (candidates and corporations) and with nowhere else to go Paul flooded the radio. We're not just talking about The Pulse, either. You could hear that stuff on Top 40. It got old, real quick. It may have bumped him below my long-predicted 10% threshold. Then again, I think his exclusion from the last debate may have ginned up support from the recluse crowd. I'll make my final decision between now and the end of my thoughts.

I find it amusing that Romney's campaign events were billed "Ask Mitt Anything" because, obviously, he'll tell you anything (you want to hear). But honestly, I think he'll flood the air with good commercials today that will pull back a lot of the "real" NH fiscal Republicans who reacted to the flood of bad press Romney was getting right around his Iowa loss.

I thnk he'll take down McCain. I also think a few of them will start to figure out that McCain's love affair with the Elite Media has largely fueled his so-called comeback. They also know he'd get trounced by the younger, realer Obama in the general.

Geez
Romney - 35%
McCain - 28%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 4%
Hunter - 1%

Also, just wanted to give a shout out to the day that my birthday brother Pat Boo-kan-ann won the 1996 NH Primary. Where have you gone, crusty nativist NH voter? And if nowhere, how will you vote this time around? You may just decide the race, after all.

November Madness

Concord, NH -

Now that we are less than fifty days away from what will probably be the New Hampshire Primary, we here at 3Q are bringing back the November Madness edition of Road to the Nomination, our NCAA Tournament-style ranking of the Democratic and Republican candidates. For some background, please see my original March Madness posts from last winter, both Democrats and Republicans.

Things have changed a lot in the last ten months on the GOP side in part due to a large number of late starters, has-beens and never-would bes. On the other hand the Dems have been almost completely static. So to mix it up we have added some commentary on how each bracket might shape up. Feel free to comment on the seedings and the wisdom. Enjoy.

Road to the Nomination - GOP

Snow Pond, NH -

click on image to enlarge

Just when you thought you had it figured out, summer happened. McCain ran out of money, co-sponsored an immigration bill that was less than hardline, and next thing you know the former frontrunner is all of the sudden struggling for mere relevance. Meanwhile, the social conservatives never rebelled against Giuliani and, if anything, they embraced him. Romney is what we thought he was: a competent businessman with a photogenic face and a questionable record of political chameleonism. Ron Paul raised an unexpected ten million and in the meantime spawned a revolution. Huckabee emerged from the dregs to become a full-fledged, Chuck Norris-endorsed contender, and Fred Thompson Marched in like a Lion and now stands to go out like a lamb if he can’t shake his reputation as a bored, sleepy old grandpa. Gingrich and Pataki never entered; Gilmore, Brownback and T. Thompson left, and here we are with just over a month until the chips hit the table. Wow.

In the 1-8 we have two tough-talking candidates who view security as their marquee issue. One served in the military, has 27 years of national service, and chaired the House Armed Services Committee. The other was the mayor of a city, lived with a gay couple after his wife left him for cheating, and prior to a coincidental event was on the verge of being one of the most despised politicians in history. Guess who is the 8 seed? That’s right, the first guy! Duncan Hunter never got off of the ground for whatever reason, and the charm and rosy 9/11 memories of America’s mayor stand to crush him before he even makes a bucket. Red State Update said it best: Come on, Duncan Hunter, that's just embarrassing, really.

The 4-5 match on the GOP side best explains why the Republicans have the most exciting race of the cycle. There is a candidate out there polling on the verge of 10% who doesn’t even make the fight. That’s right, Huckabee and Thompson are, at the same time, legitimate threats to the front runners yet barely ahead of the 6 seed in polls and fall far behind in money. Anything can happen here, folks. The best thing about the battle of midway is that it is the fight for who is the true “consistent conservative.” On the one hand you have Fred Thompson, a man that no liberal could love in spite of his long Hollywood career and refusal to legislate social issues from the Fed. On the other you have an Arkansas governor who cares about poor people, raised taxes to make good government programs work, but carries a concealed weapon, wants a constitutional ban on gay marriage and would probably sell his soul to overturn Roe v. Wade. Throw in the fact that they are the two most charismatic men in the race and we have a potential buzzer-beater on our hands. Thompson was the pre-season favorite, but despite his size and talent has shown a penchant for turnovers while Huckabee keeps drilling threes with a Jordan-esque shrug. Huck has the kind of quiet momentum that can go a long way. I see him taking this round.

3-6 is where things get interesting. On paper there is no way that Ron Paul should beat John McCain. If not for some dirty tricks in February of 2000, there is a good chance that John McCain would have been the Republican nominee 8 years ago. He has already won NH once, riding the Straight Talk Express straight through George Bush’s loose asshole, and is arguably Washington’s greatest war hero. Throw in his wit and comfort with the public and he seems like sure fire in the Granite State. But wait one second, no one counted on Ron Paul raising 4 million in one day, spending next to nothing, and sitting on millions upon millions more than the freewheeling yet failed McCain nominee-to-be campaign of 2008. Sprinkle in a kooky GOP backlash to sensible immigration policy, and an American thirst for common sense and a non-interventionist foreign policy, and suddenly we have a battle on our hands. This is arguable Paul’s least favorable matchup, a tried and true hometown favorite is exactly what the crowd-pleasing Paul’s mid-major Cinderella doesn’t need. You never want to bet against Secret Service denying McCain in a state where the motto is Live Free or Die…but what candidate espouses that view better than Ron Paul? Let the early January bloodletting begin!

In the 2-7 we have the perfect storm matchup of a single-issue wannabe candidate against a vanity-based, daddy-following natural. Romney clearly has the chops, intelligence and executive experience to wipe the floor with Tancredo, but Tommy the Tanc has the just-happy-to-be-here potential that no frontrunner ever wants to see. Tancredo will viciously attack sanctuary cities like Somerville (aka Slummaville) with his frisky defense and sharp-step drive to the heart of both common sense law abiders and xenophobes, but Romney will unleash a barrage of spin moves and sweet jumpers that will bury Tancredo and his immigration policy within the first ten minutes.

The second round is a little trickier to predict up top because of the fiercely competitive 4-5 game. However, either one will provide some rough chatter for Giuliani. This game is set up to be a battle of social conservatism versus national security. In other words, Huckabee’s prayer circle at every timeout and months of teetotaling 6AM practices against Giuliani’s intimidating man-to-man defense. A few months ago, it seemed like Giuliani’s concentration would falter midway through the game, but his focus has been at championship levels lately. If he can keep it up and grind down his opponent he should pull through, but if either of the others manage to get Giuliani into foul trouble early, watch out for the early upset.

On the bottom we have the making of a real bloodbath. These two teams legitimately hate each other. McCain is the tried and true program that can’t stand watching his rankings drop precipitously below the younger, quicker, more talented upstart from the heart of enemy territory. McCain’s bag of tricks is deep, and plays with a hard charging honesty that might bewilder Romney, but we can’t forget that Romney is one of the most talented competitors out there. He moves well without the ball, and knows how to effectively move on defense, and alters his positions frequently with a haze-inducing motion offense. If his game plan plays out, Romney has the edge, but if there is one person in the race who can take him out of it, that candidate is John McCain.

Yes, break out the net-clipping scissors. Call forth the raucous crowds. Summon the heartburn medicine and find a towel for your tears. It’s the road to the nomination, baby. Primary Season 2007 is upon us.

Road to the Nomination - Dems

Snow Pond, NH -

click on image to enlarge

The donkeys positioning didn’t change much in the last six months, but the potential match-up problems have certainly evolved.

In the 1-8, Mike Gravel is certainly overmatched against the well-funded, and even better-connected Hillary Clinton. The crowd in Ames will almost certainly be at least 90% pro-Clinton, and her coffers and reputation have produced what is the equivalent of a full-fledged free agency juggernaut. Yet Gravel, though old and hobbling on a bum knee, is a gunner to the end. He may not be able to take out Hillary or even stay close through the second half, but the potential is ripe for him to expose Clinton’s weakness from the left, right and center. Please believe he’ll be bombing threes all night and bringing the hard fouls on the defensive end.

Next up on the 4-5 docket we have what has grown into the second biggest rivalry after Clinton-Edwards. Biden, a powerhouse program from the 80s that has lost its winning percentage but not its swagger and adherence to the fundamentals, has been getting snippy with Richardson for months now hoping to gain the full mantle of experience and foreign policy know-how. Going against Joe Biden as a low-seed is like playing an underachieving team coached by Mike Krzyzewski. They may seem eminently beatable, but the lingering fear subsides. But that underachieving cloud could be a big problem against Richardson. The big Governor has size and athleticism, and those are two things you can’t teach. Biden might call his plays gimmicky, but the crowd loves them, especially at home. Ultimately, Richardson’s innovative play-calling and charm offensive should be too much to overtake, but if Biden does it, it will be with defense.

Down at 3-6, Edwards has the clear advantage over Dodd. A lot of critics hailed Dodd’s 6 seed as the most overrated in the tournament, but his endorsements and experience make him a formidable candidate. Dodd may take the high road, and play the game with an ear held open to whispers of the ancients, but it likely won’t be enough to withstand Edwards. The Dems’ most recent veep choice has the intensity, talent and sweet shooting stroke that might carry him far. Edwards could rack up a few technicals along the way, and garner the ire of a hostile crowd, but it is that same chip on his shoulder that makes him want the ball in crunch time. And those kinds of scorers usually take their teams multiple rounds into the tournament.

Finally at 2-7 is Kucinich and Obama. The man detractors call Obambi for his good sportsmanship award has been finding his swagger of late after a cupcake city early schedule that had teams rolling over in deference to his charm and often mesmerizing displays of hoops acuity. Kucinich, on the other hand, commands disrespect from his opponents. Short, disheveled, and hailing from a weak conference (the US House), Kucinich never gets any calls from referees, though crowds tend to like his underdog appeal. Not as much as they like Obama, though, and even though the man they call “Kooch” can display a true interpretation of the anti-war defense, Obama’s sheer talent is too much to overcome.

In the second round of the upper bracket, Richardson’s only chance is for Gravel to wear down Clinton heavily. She is quicker, nastier and deeper than the other Bill, but if she is overly tired from her first round run with gritty Gravel, or has been exposed as too reliant on the run and gun, there is a chance that Richardson’s size and craftiness can slow down the pace and sneak by in a low-scoring game.

The next frame of the lower rung is much more interesting. Both candidates are extremely talented, and known for their respective offensive skill sets. Still, their styles of play couldn’t be further from one another. Obama is the prototypical smooth, academic good guy. His jumper belongs in an instructional video. On the same token, Edwards’ stroke is real pretty but he plays with a gritty fire unbeknownst to Obama. Barack has the talent edge, and the height advantage, but Edwards has been in the spotlight of the convention before. He has tasted it and he wants it. That said, there is no second place in politics. Could they fashion a truce and cakewalk it through the semis with the hope of facing fresh a fatigued Clinton for the sake of the bottom bracket? Time will tell, but there is no doubt they will need their shots to fall, and a few of Clinton’s to miss, if not an outright early upset, to make the big stage. But remember this is the tournament, where you never say never.

Break out the net-clipping scissors. Call forth the raucous crowds. Summon the heartburn medicine and find a towel for your tears. It’s the road to the nomination, baby. Primary Season 2007 is upon us.

Road to the Nomination - GOP

The GOP is even further over the map than the Dems. Will that prove them to be more salt of the earth? Can a cinderella candidate like Ouachita Baptist take on a traditional powerhouse like BYU? Altitude may prove to be a factor, as will homecourt advantage and the tiny confines of Wartburg College. With enough candidates to require a play-in round, this much is for sure - we're gonna have a battle on our hands! Let the wedge issue advocacy begin!























Again, let me know what you think about the format and the seedings. As Guy Noir might say, see you in St. Paul!

Road to the Nomination - Dems

One thing that I have noticed about this cycle's potential nominees is that they are not the usual incestuous family of Ivy Leaguers. In fact, there are quite a few obscure state schools in the mix, not to mention two NESCAC representatives. The next two 3Q posts will examine this phenomenon with a mock-up of the NCAA Final Four Tournament done in haste on a shitty MS Paint program. Let's start with the Dems! Click on the image below for a more in-depth look at your favorite politicians and their Alma maters!

Feel free to drop your analysis on seedings, etc. in the comments section.

Next up, the GOP!