Monday, January 7, 2008

The Great BTBini Predicts New Hampshire

A few notes on the Primary.

Iowa was easty to pick. I had nothin' to lose. But New Hampshire has me nervous. Blood is in the air on the Dem side as the Clintons are on the verge of stopping at nothing to reclaim the driver's seat. Meanwhile, Obama and Edwards are coolly combatting her hits in a loosely connected effort.

Will Granite State voters freak out and buy the Clinton line of being the candidate of Experience and Real Change? Well, last I looked Real Change was the name of a homeless person's newspaper that nobody buys. I think it might be the case again here in New Hampshire.

One of the metrics I use? Yard signs and bumper stickers. I know that is far from scientific...but then again so am I. I saw far more Obama bumper stickers and yard signs than I did Hillary in my NH travels, even before the Iowa win and the recent slate of good poll news for the Illinoisan.

Edwards has performed very well in the last few days, and his newfound close-top-3 viability will help him hold on to some people who otherwise might have bolted for someone more "winnable" (shudder, shudder). He'll also get some Doddites.

Where will the Bideners go? Who the hell knows.

Richardson will stay where Richardson was. A distant fourth. People just never heard his message of Good News. Sad but true.

So, despite the chance of utter failure, I channel the spirit of Pervis "Never Nervous" Ellison (Louisville Edition) and boldly predict the race. To the numbers!

Obama - 37%
Clinton - 26%
Edwards - 24%
Richardson - 10%
Kucinich - 3%
Gravel - <1%%

A few closing thoughts on the Republicans.

I think Paul's campaign hurt itself by running all of those annoying radio ads. Late in the game they raised all this money, but the tv time was already bought and paid for by the other monied interests (candidates and corporations) and with nowhere else to go Paul flooded the radio. We're not just talking about The Pulse, either. You could hear that stuff on Top 40. It got old, real quick. It may have bumped him below my long-predicted 10% threshold. Then again, I think his exclusion from the last debate may have ginned up support from the recluse crowd. I'll make my final decision between now and the end of my thoughts.

I find it amusing that Romney's campaign events were billed "Ask Mitt Anything" because, obviously, he'll tell you anything (you want to hear). But honestly, I think he'll flood the air with good commercials today that will pull back a lot of the "real" NH fiscal Republicans who reacted to the flood of bad press Romney was getting right around his Iowa loss.

I thnk he'll take down McCain. I also think a few of them will start to figure out that McCain's love affair with the Elite Media has largely fueled his so-called comeback. They also know he'd get trounced by the younger, realer Obama in the general.

Romney - 35%
McCain - 28%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 4%
Hunter - 1%

Also, just wanted to give a shout out to the day that my birthday brother Pat Boo-kan-ann won the 1996 NH Primary. Where have you gone, crusty nativist NH voter? And if nowhere, how will you vote this time around? You may just decide the race, after all.


poetsandpatriots said...

Great hilarious independent ad for primary eve.

Jake said...

Speaking of Clintonian insanity and thirst for blood: did you notice Bill's reference to Hillary as being more steadfast, reliable, and generally more bad ass than Mandela? She must have a bunch of prison tats under her pantsuit.

BTB said...

Bill is calling the Paulites nuts, but he should look in the mirror. Dude is off the wall right now. My friend (and frequent 3Q poster) Vince has a theory that Bill is subconsciously sabotaging Hill's campaign so that he can remain Top Dog in the Clinton sphere. It's a little out there, but worth a thought or two.

I actually heard that Hill has a fat Wellesley College tat on her lower back...just kidding.

CB said...

Looks like you were right about those Paul radio ads