Road to the Nomination - GOP

Snow Pond, NH -

click on image to enlarge

Just when you thought you had it figured out, summer happened. McCain ran out of money, co-sponsored an immigration bill that was less than hardline, and next thing you know the former frontrunner is all of the sudden struggling for mere relevance. Meanwhile, the social conservatives never rebelled against Giuliani and, if anything, they embraced him. Romney is what we thought he was: a competent businessman with a photogenic face and a questionable record of political chameleonism. Ron Paul raised an unexpected ten million and in the meantime spawned a revolution. Huckabee emerged from the dregs to become a full-fledged, Chuck Norris-endorsed contender, and Fred Thompson Marched in like a Lion and now stands to go out like a lamb if he can’t shake his reputation as a bored, sleepy old grandpa. Gingrich and Pataki never entered; Gilmore, Brownback and T. Thompson left, and here we are with just over a month until the chips hit the table. Wow.

In the 1-8 we have two tough-talking candidates who view security as their marquee issue. One served in the military, has 27 years of national service, and chaired the House Armed Services Committee. The other was the mayor of a city, lived with a gay couple after his wife left him for cheating, and prior to a coincidental event was on the verge of being one of the most despised politicians in history. Guess who is the 8 seed? That’s right, the first guy! Duncan Hunter never got off of the ground for whatever reason, and the charm and rosy 9/11 memories of America’s mayor stand to crush him before he even makes a bucket. Red State Update said it best: Come on, Duncan Hunter, that's just embarrassing, really.

The 4-5 match on the GOP side best explains why the Republicans have the most exciting race of the cycle. There is a candidate out there polling on the verge of 10% who doesn’t even make the fight. That’s right, Huckabee and Thompson are, at the same time, legitimate threats to the front runners yet barely ahead of the 6 seed in polls and fall far behind in money. Anything can happen here, folks. The best thing about the battle of midway is that it is the fight for who is the true “consistent conservative.” On the one hand you have Fred Thompson, a man that no liberal could love in spite of his long Hollywood career and refusal to legislate social issues from the Fed. On the other you have an Arkansas governor who cares about poor people, raised taxes to make good government programs work, but carries a concealed weapon, wants a constitutional ban on gay marriage and would probably sell his soul to overturn Roe v. Wade. Throw in the fact that they are the two most charismatic men in the race and we have a potential buzzer-beater on our hands. Thompson was the pre-season favorite, but despite his size and talent has shown a penchant for turnovers while Huckabee keeps drilling threes with a Jordan-esque shrug. Huck has the kind of quiet momentum that can go a long way. I see him taking this round.

3-6 is where things get interesting. On paper there is no way that Ron Paul should beat John McCain. If not for some dirty tricks in February of 2000, there is a good chance that John McCain would have been the Republican nominee 8 years ago. He has already won NH once, riding the Straight Talk Express straight through George Bush’s loose asshole, and is arguably Washington’s greatest war hero. Throw in his wit and comfort with the public and he seems like sure fire in the Granite State. But wait one second, no one counted on Ron Paul raising 4 million in one day, spending next to nothing, and sitting on millions upon millions more than the freewheeling yet failed McCain nominee-to-be campaign of 2008. Sprinkle in a kooky GOP backlash to sensible immigration policy, and an American thirst for common sense and a non-interventionist foreign policy, and suddenly we have a battle on our hands. This is arguable Paul’s least favorable matchup, a tried and true hometown favorite is exactly what the crowd-pleasing Paul’s mid-major Cinderella doesn’t need. You never want to bet against Secret Service denying McCain in a state where the motto is Live Free or Die…but what candidate espouses that view better than Ron Paul? Let the early January bloodletting begin!

In the 2-7 we have the perfect storm matchup of a single-issue wannabe candidate against a vanity-based, daddy-following natural. Romney clearly has the chops, intelligence and executive experience to wipe the floor with Tancredo, but Tommy the Tanc has the just-happy-to-be-here potential that no frontrunner ever wants to see. Tancredo will viciously attack sanctuary cities like Somerville (aka Slummaville) with his frisky defense and sharp-step drive to the heart of both common sense law abiders and xenophobes, but Romney will unleash a barrage of spin moves and sweet jumpers that will bury Tancredo and his immigration policy within the first ten minutes.

The second round is a little trickier to predict up top because of the fiercely competitive 4-5 game. However, either one will provide some rough chatter for Giuliani. This game is set up to be a battle of social conservatism versus national security. In other words, Huckabee’s prayer circle at every timeout and months of teetotaling 6AM practices against Giuliani’s intimidating man-to-man defense. A few months ago, it seemed like Giuliani’s concentration would falter midway through the game, but his focus has been at championship levels lately. If he can keep it up and grind down his opponent he should pull through, but if either of the others manage to get Giuliani into foul trouble early, watch out for the early upset.

On the bottom we have the making of a real bloodbath. These two teams legitimately hate each other. McCain is the tried and true program that can’t stand watching his rankings drop precipitously below the younger, quicker, more talented upstart from the heart of enemy territory. McCain’s bag of tricks is deep, and plays with a hard charging honesty that might bewilder Romney, but we can’t forget that Romney is one of the most talented competitors out there. He moves well without the ball, and knows how to effectively move on defense, and alters his positions frequently with a haze-inducing motion offense. If his game plan plays out, Romney has the edge, but if there is one person in the race who can take him out of it, that candidate is John McCain.

Yes, break out the net-clipping scissors. Call forth the raucous crowds. Summon the heartburn medicine and find a towel for your tears. It’s the road to the nomination, baby. Primary Season 2007 is upon us.

Road to the Nomination - Dems

Snow Pond, NH -

click on image to enlarge

The donkeys positioning didn’t change much in the last six months, but the potential match-up problems have certainly evolved.

In the 1-8, Mike Gravel is certainly overmatched against the well-funded, and even better-connected Hillary Clinton. The crowd in Ames will almost certainly be at least 90% pro-Clinton, and her coffers and reputation have produced what is the equivalent of a full-fledged free agency juggernaut. Yet Gravel, though old and hobbling on a bum knee, is a gunner to the end. He may not be able to take out Hillary or even stay close through the second half, but the potential is ripe for him to expose Clinton’s weakness from the left, right and center. Please believe he’ll be bombing threes all night and bringing the hard fouls on the defensive end.

Next up on the 4-5 docket we have what has grown into the second biggest rivalry after Clinton-Edwards. Biden, a powerhouse program from the 80s that has lost its winning percentage but not its swagger and adherence to the fundamentals, has been getting snippy with Richardson for months now hoping to gain the full mantle of experience and foreign policy know-how. Going against Joe Biden as a low-seed is like playing an underachieving team coached by Mike Krzyzewski. They may seem eminently beatable, but the lingering fear subsides. But that underachieving cloud could be a big problem against Richardson. The big Governor has size and athleticism, and those are two things you can’t teach. Biden might call his plays gimmicky, but the crowd loves them, especially at home. Ultimately, Richardson’s innovative play-calling and charm offensive should be too much to overtake, but if Biden does it, it will be with defense.

Down at 3-6, Edwards has the clear advantage over Dodd. A lot of critics hailed Dodd’s 6 seed as the most overrated in the tournament, but his endorsements and experience make him a formidable candidate. Dodd may take the high road, and play the game with an ear held open to whispers of the ancients, but it likely won’t be enough to withstand Edwards. The Dems’ most recent veep choice has the intensity, talent and sweet shooting stroke that might carry him far. Edwards could rack up a few technicals along the way, and garner the ire of a hostile crowd, but it is that same chip on his shoulder that makes him want the ball in crunch time. And those kinds of scorers usually take their teams multiple rounds into the tournament.

Finally at 2-7 is Kucinich and Obama. The man detractors call Obambi for his good sportsmanship award has been finding his swagger of late after a cupcake city early schedule that had teams rolling over in deference to his charm and often mesmerizing displays of hoops acuity. Kucinich, on the other hand, commands disrespect from his opponents. Short, disheveled, and hailing from a weak conference (the US House), Kucinich never gets any calls from referees, though crowds tend to like his underdog appeal. Not as much as they like Obama, though, and even though the man they call “Kooch” can display a true interpretation of the anti-war defense, Obama’s sheer talent is too much to overcome.

In the second round of the upper bracket, Richardson’s only chance is for Gravel to wear down Clinton heavily. She is quicker, nastier and deeper than the other Bill, but if she is overly tired from her first round run with gritty Gravel, or has been exposed as too reliant on the run and gun, there is a chance that Richardson’s size and craftiness can slow down the pace and sneak by in a low-scoring game.

The next frame of the lower rung is much more interesting. Both candidates are extremely talented, and known for their respective offensive skill sets. Still, their styles of play couldn’t be further from one another. Obama is the prototypical smooth, academic good guy. His jumper belongs in an instructional video. On the same token, Edwards’ stroke is real pretty but he plays with a gritty fire unbeknownst to Obama. Barack has the talent edge, and the height advantage, but Edwards has been in the spotlight of the convention before. He has tasted it and he wants it. That said, there is no second place in politics. Could they fashion a truce and cakewalk it through the semis with the hope of facing fresh a fatigued Clinton for the sake of the bottom bracket? Time will tell, but there is no doubt they will need their shots to fall, and a few of Clinton’s to miss, if not an outright early upset, to make the big stage. But remember this is the tournament, where you never say never.

Break out the net-clipping scissors. Call forth the raucous crowds. Summon the heartburn medicine and find a towel for your tears. It’s the road to the nomination, baby. Primary Season 2007 is upon us.

Politics, Its Fannnnn-tastic!

Welcome Sports Fans!

Due to the raging popularity of my earlier Road to the Nomination posts, we're coming back at you with, you guessed it, SPORTS ANALOGIES!!

It might be a little late in the game relative to the actual event, but who among us doesn't love to compare normal people to pro sports teams, no matter the season? Without further ado, read on to find out who your favorite candidate would be if he or she were a playoff team in the NBA!

A quick preface, I chose the Western Conference to be the breeding ground for the Dems because of their perceived advantage over the (L)Eastern Conference GOP. Furthermore, just because I picked certain candidates as the Spurs or Cavs or Mavs doesn't mean I necessarily expect them to make the big show or lose in the first round, but it sure could be. I was merely looking for the best fit in terms of style and ability. For further clarification, see the actual 2007 NBA playoffs results here.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Dallas Mavericks - Barack Obama
Both have lots of money, style, and skill. Still, questions about true championship viability remain in spite of all the regular season success. Neither is an established presence in their respective field, and that assessment by the media continues to haunt those who would otherwise jump on the bandwagon. Can't shake the knock that they are too "nice" and not nasty enough to win. Nevertheless, don't look past the gaudy statistics. A potential favorite to collect the trophy.
Phoenix Suns - John Edwards
Phoenix and Edwards both represent a youthful vigor, whose run-and-gun populism leads to high scores and a sharing not just the rock but also the burdens of society. Their styles of play depend on high energy, and as a result a fear of injury perpetually exists as does the possibility for punishing success. Furthermore, as Edwards becomes more fired up, the Suns mascot grows more and more fitting to describe the heat coming out of his campaign.
San Antonio Spurs - Hillary Rodham Clinton
The beasts. Clinton and the Spurs mostly represent four things: sound fundamentals, proven personnel/campaigning systems, the stench of dynasty, and an air of inevitability. Clearly, each of these two teams has a track record of success, but not without its detractors. The low-risk, high reward process employed by the two makes them easy to hate. Both have a reputation for getting all the calls from the referees/media and for whining when things don't go their way. Furthermore, there are those who say their styles are ruining politics/basketball for the fans, and that they were born on third base yet thought they hit a triple by drafting Duncan and marrying Bill. That said, verrry tough to beat and always a good money bet for the finals.
Utah Jazz - Bill Richardson
Despite a long resume of playoff success and public service, Richardson and the Jazz are little known outside of the Rocky Mountain Southwest. Gone are the days of Stockton-to-Malone when simple characteristics like sound fundamentals and wise policy judgments are the ticket to the finals, national media exposure is the key today and both have missed the boat. Nevertheless, a ticket to the conference finals this year and recent poll numbers in the retail politics hotbeds of New Hampshire and Iowa have the fans looking up. Watch out for high turnover numbers from Deron Williams and high foot-in-mouth gaffes from the candidate Richardson.
Houston Rockets - Chris Dodd
Much like the Houston Rockets in the NBA playoffs scheme of things, Dodd is solid but invisible candidates. The Rockets and Dodd are both solid on skills and issues, but they seem to disappear at times and haven't been able to translate their strength into playoff victories. Plus, Dodd gains much of his formative experience from an international turn in the peace corps and the Rockets gain much of their notoriety from foreign centers, Yao today and Olajuwon of old. It makes sense.
Denver Nuggets - Joe Biden
Both have what I like to call a High Baller Coefficient. The Nugs can roll with 'Melo, AI and Camby, and no one can light up a debate like Joe Biden. Because of this, on paper, both are potential juggernauts. Yet neither has translated that potential into votes or playoff wins. Either team can shoot the lights out with potent offensives, but also have a tendency to ball hog, go cold for periods of time and say stupid things off the court. Always well regarded, but still no proof in the pudding.
LA Lakers - Dennis Kucinich
The celebrity team of the NBA meets the celebrity candidate of the true Liberals. Both enjoy the support of Jack Nicholson. Kobe can score points in a hurry, just like Kucinich in the AFL-CIO and LOGO debates. Phil Jackson's triangle offense akin to Kooch's potent triangle offense of peace, health care and fair trade. Both have hot female fans.
Golden State Warriors - Mike Gravel
A real David vs. Goliath story. Either will fearlessly sling rocks and believe in a free-wheeling, caution to the wind Nellieball-style approach. Plus, it represents the first time Alaska has been visible on the Democratsic since well before the last time Golden State made the playoffs.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit Pistons - Mitt Romney
Romney and the Pistons are both solid all around. Smart, well-prepared and ambitious, but Mitt's constant turnaround on the issues might be analagous to a perceived lack of heart in the current Pistons that has been lurking every since they won a title a few years ago. Plus, Romney grew up in Michigan. Maybe he's a Pistons fan. Judging by his track record, he must have been at one point or another.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Rudolph Giuliani
Rudy and the Cavs share both a major strength and a major weakness. Both camps are fueled by incredible star power in LeBron James and the 9/11 spotlight, while both have very little else in terms of supporting cast. Who is James gonna pass it to in crunch time? Larry Hughes? Meanwhile, what does Giuliani talk about besides security? A new hard-line stance on immigration? That said, the Cavs rode that star power all the way to the finals. Could Giuliani do the same?
Toronto Raptors - Fred Thompson
Both won a weak division to get such a high seeding. For the Raptors it was the Atlantic, and for Fred Thompson it is that distinctly Republican division called "perceieved to be most Reaganesque". Either way, it is a paper tiger. Both fancy themselves outsiders, have little playoff experience and few actual weapons. But still, they are both division champs, and a #3 seed. Something must be said about that.
Miami Heat - John McCain
Miami and McCain, a perfect pairing of early favorites. Unfortunately age is a factor, and both sides ain't getting any younger. Serious injury to Dwayne Wade derailed the Heat this spring, and injuries to McCain's reputation by way of Iraq war support and perceived "amnesty" on immigration threaten to end his road to the finals before it really begins. Shaq and McCain, meanwhile, are both consistently witty and lovable.
Chicago Bulls - Mike Huckabee
Both seem to have all the pieces in place to be contenders, but aren't quite there. Huckabee is a reliable conservative, a former minister with a great personality and a recent strong showing in Ames. Can he make the most of his momentum, like the Bulls arguably failed to do by not dumping PJ Brown's expiring contract for KG? Furthermore, both reside in the shadow of being from a town whose favorite son is larger than life. For Chicago its MJ, and for Hope, AR its Bill Clinton. Also, Huck jokes about being able to walk into a coffee shop without being known and the Bulls collection of young talent is still pretty unrecognizable as far as NBA stars go.
New Jersey Nets - Sam Brownback
This doesn't really fit except that both are kind of bland and I don't like either of them. The Nets have a lot of superstars in Kidd, Carter and Jefferson, and maybe Brownback is a superstar of the anti-abortion crowd. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Washington Wizards - Ron Paul
Dr. No = Agent Zero, an intriguing superstar that nobody seems to understand. Very tantalizing and a lot of internet support, Ron Paul with his facebook and Gil Arenas with his blog. However, if a lot of anti-war and civil libertarian lefties realize that Paul is against most softie government programs, his candidacy might be in just as much trouble as the Wizards were when Gilbert went down. P.S. Arenas' new nickname is The Landlord. Maybe we can call Ron Paul The Superintendent.
Orlando Magic - Tom Tancredo
Tancredo is a one trick pony for immigration and the Magic are a one man team with Dwight Howard. However, they did just sign Ra Lewis, and Tancredo did just finish a surprisingly high 4th at Ames. Either way, both are irrelevant Eight seeds.

Road to the Nomination - GOP

The GOP is even further over the map than the Dems. Will that prove them to be more salt of the earth? Can a cinderella candidate like Ouachita Baptist take on a traditional powerhouse like BYU? Altitude may prove to be a factor, as will homecourt advantage and the tiny confines of Wartburg College. With enough candidates to require a play-in round, this much is for sure - we're gonna have a battle on our hands! Let the wedge issue advocacy begin!























Again, let me know what you think about the format and the seedings. As Guy Noir might say, see you in St. Paul!

Road to the Nomination - Dems

One thing that I have noticed about this cycle's potential nominees is that they are not the usual incestuous family of Ivy Leaguers. In fact, there are quite a few obscure state schools in the mix, not to mention two NESCAC representatives. The next two 3Q posts will examine this phenomenon with a mock-up of the NCAA Final Four Tournament done in haste on a shitty MS Paint program. Let's start with the Dems! Click on the image below for a more in-depth look at your favorite politicians and their Alma maters!

Feel free to drop your analysis on seedings, etc. in the comments section.

Next up, the GOP!