Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Road to the Nomination - GOP
Again, let me know what you think about the format and the seedings. As Guy Noir might say, see you in St. Paul!
Road to the Nomination - Dems
One thing that I have noticed about this cycle's potential nominees is that they are not the usual incestuous family of Ivy Leaguers. In fact, there are quite a few obscure state schools in the mix, not to mention two NESCAC representatives. The next two 3Q posts will examine this phenomenon with a mock-up of the NCAA Final Four Tournament done in haste on a shitty MS Paint program. Let's start with the Dems! Click on the image below for a more in-depth look at your favorite politicians and their Alma maters!
Feel free to drop your analysis on seedings, etc. in the comments section.
Next up, the GOP!
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Can't You Smell That Smell?
The best antedote for a frenetic Friday and Saturday, I figured, was a nice, long run down to the shores of the Quabbin. Given the relative lack of fitness under my belt during these past few months, it was the first time I was able to make it all the way down to the end of the Gate 8 Road. Unlike my sunkist front yard the gritty Quabbin path still had a majority of snow cover, even at a lower altitude. I trekked down the way, leaving evenly paced footprints behind as I ran alongside closed gates to my left and raced the flow of a snowy creek to my right. I was rewarded at 35:39 with a wide-open Reservoir in front of me. Serenity holds such a tight grip on the lake that the mere shuffling of my feet as I slowed to a stop scattered an entire flock of ducks, floating casually on the shore 100 yards away, off toward Prescott Peninsula. The trees came straight down to shoreline, the green of the needles becoming the brown of bark becoming the slate gray of rock and the cool blue of water.
O Quabbin, my Puget Sound away from home!
Back on the Presidential trail, where things aren't always as calm as they are in Quabbin Qountry, the wheels kept moving forward. Obama got some good press in the Times, while Hillary got some bad press in New York and Washington. Frank Rich, that old sailor, really takes Hilly to task on her Iraq turn, and rightly so.
"Mrs. Clinton has always been a follower of public opinion on the war, not a leader," Rich says, "Now events are outrunning her. Support for the war both in the polls and among Republicans in Congress is plummeting faster than she can recalibrate her rhetoric."
Broder, meanwhile, takes offense to her political speech at the recent Patraeus hearing in the Senate where Hillary asks but one question, followed by a four word response, to the new commander of US forces in Iraq. When both the liberal lion and the elder statesman, respectively, are mocking you this early on it can't be a good sign.
I have made it perfectly clear that here in Quabbin Qountry we seek genuineness, and that we are big fans of Mr. Rich's work. When he essentially calls the Hill Bus(c)h Lite for her scripted town hall meetings and softball questions, it hits hard. I bore witness to some of those scripted Bush rallies back in the Rockies and I am still recovering from the affront on my soul that was a bunch of blank-eyed supporters cheering at the appropriate money lines. It is true that now more than ever we need someone "for realz" in the oval office. Allow me to recount a story I heard recently, courtesy of future-star Oz Hazel:
"Back in the day there was a question about who the republicans wouldnominate for the presidency, Lincoln or Douglas. Lincoln knew that Douglas supported slavery and that he argued the Constitution required the states to continue to allow the trade of men. Lincoln, not having much experience or expertise, went to the library and studied the constitution and other texts for several days prior to the Republican convention. At theconvention he stood up and gave a TWO hour speech about why he believed thatthe framers did not intend slavery to continue forever. At the conclusionof his speech the delegates voted unanimously for Lincoln to be the nominee."
Would that it were that Iraq was as clear-cut an issue as slavery! Alas, what I truly fear is not that any one candidate can give a comprehensive and heart-felt speech on a given topic but whether or not the American public still has it in them, after all the spin and all the advertising dollars, to smell the smell of genuine. It is a beautiful smell, but elusive. Not like pine trees or apple pie, genuine drifts past one's nose like a mosquito escaping two clapped hands. Those who are impostrous are the hardest to pin down, and are usually fat with a stomach full of fresh blood. But what keeps us coming back to the Quabbin is the real scent, the real scene of peninsulas jutting down on to glassy water, and the stillness of the dusk air. Can we find it in 2008?
De Ranke XX,
BTB
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Primary Paranoia, or, Caucus in Yer Face
It really got my blood boiling today when I heard that more states are looking to push their primaries and caucuses up into early February. If I may invoke the great "Weird" Al Yankovic, this would make the early campaign frenzy not just Bad, but Even Worse. My dread exists in part because I can't tell if my strong gut reaction is the right one. The arrogance shown by the likes of California, Illinois, New Jersey and Florida is sickening, as to be expected from such questionable states. Have you ever met anyone from Florida or California? If you have, they are probably the self-important type who would display such a me-first, party-be-damned attitude. The last thing we need is an ever greater focus on early fundraising to purchase precious advertising time in the LA, SF, CHI, MIA, ORL and Tri-States markets.
Then again, it might be interesting to see how candidates market themselves to such a diverse brew of electorates. What kind of remarkably two-faced son-of-a-bitch can simultaneously pitch immigration (SoCal/FL), high minimum wage (NorCal), heartland values (IL), and whatever New Jersey cares about while at the same time wearing plaid earmuffs and shoveling down hotcakes in the Upper Merrimack Valley? I worry that it would frontload the thing even more, although in the Times article Tad Devine argues that it could lead to a bitter showdown among multiple frontrunners, which is ideal. As we say up here on the Quabbin, the more backroom deals and delegate trading, the better!
Meanwhile, those four big states must be enviously muttering to themselves how it is a bunch of hogwash that some podunk whitebread state has so much sway in a diverse and metropolitan Democratic Party. To make matters worse, New Hampshire has a neighborly lean toward candidates from New England (Kerry in '04, Tsongas in '92, Dukakis in '88), which currently stands as the American Presidential wasteland. Welcome to nowheresville, Mr. Romney. We stopped making Presidents here in New England back in the 60's. But to Hell with it, now we just transcend them. On the one hand, some might think that New Hampshire is a good, moderate decision-making entity for a candidate with it's centrist roots, but if that is the goal then the Dems ought to go with Missouri, who last preferred the losing candidate in 1956 when Missourians wanted the rest of the country to "Show-Me" that affable old egghead Adlai Stevenson, one of only seven states to do so. Such begrudging respect for Missouri, emphasis on grudge.
So we must quote the late Tip O'Neill, former Massachusetts congressman, House Majority Leader and boss of Chris Matthews when we say "all politics is local." As a result, it stings to think that our beloved Granite State might lose some of it's political clout. That same Granite State that is synonymous with Primaries, where you can shake the future President's hand in a high school gym, eat hot dogs with a Senator on a hot August afternoon in downtown Manchester before grabbing a beer at Strange Brew, and see a big shot drive from Berlin all the way down to Keene in a single day to personally get out the vote. Most days these assholes don't set foot outside of anywhere but the Senate halls and $1,000-a-plate fundraisers. And now people want to maim New Hampshire, the last great bastion of man-to-man stump speeches, and the last place where a politician gets to (or, heaven forbid, has to) act like a true human being. Then again, maybe I just have an irrational desire that every would-be President jump off the Rte. 175 Bridge into the Pemi River to prove his mettle.
And in the shout-outs section of the Queries, I want to give some props to my old commander Steve Haro, quoted in today's edition of The Caucus. Huzzah to a great communicator.
Once again at the M&D, enjoying one of the all-time greats that I usually only have the privilege to sip on in Newport, Oregon, a Rogue Brutal Bitter.
First in the Nation,
BTB
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
All the Cool Kids Are Doing It
2004:
- W has the GOP nomination locked up.
- John Kerry arrives as the early frontrunner, theoretically challenged by Gephardt. Dean comes on strong and steals the lead role until Iowa. He screams, Kerry wins, Edwards finishes strong, and next thing you know New Hampshire is over and Kerry's momentum is unstoppable.
2000:
- Early favorite Bush triumphs with a foreshadowing shadiness over McCain and the Straight Talk Express, while a bunch of yahoos like Steve Forbes, Liddy Dole, Orrin Hatch, Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes wallow in the background.
- Bill Bradley puts up a minor affront to Albert Gore, Jr.'s campaign, and is quickly and repeatedly snuffed. A real no-brainer.
Now we have '08. Whereas the last two cycles could be likened more accurately to Wrestlemania affairs consisting of two-man, and occasional tag-team, title matches we now have a true Royal Rumble. Clinton! Obama! Edwards! Kerry! Richardson! Biden! Dodd! Kucinich! McCain! Giuliani! Romney! Brownback! Hunter! Paul! Live from Washington, DC! Tuesday! Tuesday! Tuesday! 2008!!!! As they say in the District, we built this city on talk and polls.
As the Fix shows, everyone already has a pollster, and this good article in the Times wisely mentions how Clark came in too late last year, a mistake certainly not to be made by anyone with a head on their shoulders this time around. Which reminds me of my lucid regrets of 11/3/04, when I was never more certain of anything in my damned life than I was of Wes Clark's ability to win a theoretical race against the Dub. This year, though, everyone is in it to win it. We could have a primary season like never before, with each debate and each state like the Round of 64. You know there is going to be a Cinderella. You know there is a Goliath in the wait. Who will be the SW Missouri State, and who will be the Arizona? We'll have to let New Hampshire sort them out...unless the rest of the country has something to say about it.
The snow and the frigid temps appear to be back on the Quabbin Radar. Here's to a relevant woodstove, and the necessity of layering. In Corsedonk We Trust,
BTB
Thursday, January 18, 2007
The Bodacity of Hope
So it has come about, the pipe dream of so many has now begun to show the tiniest bit of distant light in the uniquely political way of creating an opening to donate, donate, donate! With that, the Dems now have two monster front runners - Barack and the yet-to-announce Hillary, who had to play a little bit of damage control upon Obama's announcement. She cancelled her own press conference that day, live from Iraq, and spent the next day on a total media blitz. It wasn't any ordinary media blitz, either. Hilly made it clear that she was no Hawk on Iraq. She even went a little gut feeling Bush-y on us, telling NPR yesterday morning that "I was listening for a level of commitment to securing Iraq by the Iraqi government and the Iraqi army and police force that has been missing, and I didn't hear that." Now she and Chris Dodd both are advertising a troop cap, while Obama basks in his anti-war credentials from 2002. There he speaks of Civil War, just as today his team promotes him as a modern-day Honest Abe, an Illinoisan of modest experience but profound judgment. Problem is, he ain't Kentuck.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Lodi Doddi
BTB
Sunday, January 7, 2007
Priorities
Thursday, January 4, 2007
House Party
BTB
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
The Moon Is So Bright,
The amount of moonlight coming down on Quabbin Qountry was tantamount to LUNAcy. I hopped out of the cabin around 8:15 tonight, and my first few steps alongside the neighbor's pasture were chock full of sheer giddiness. I literally bounded down the lane for the first hundred meters or so until the shade of the trees finally kicked in to cloud my vision ever so slightly. By the time I got down the hill near Cadwell I began to harbor illusions that I could run in the woods. Obviously, I gave it a try. I made it roughly 55 seconds down the trail before I turned around, partly out of wariness of the dark, partly out of my inability to keep pace along the shadowy, rocky path. Nevertheless, I put in a solid 2 minutes on trail at 8:20pm in January. It would be a stretch to find much negativity in that.
Now here we are, one more 3Q entry in the books, and one year closer to Presidential Go Time according to the last two digits of today's date (1/03/07). Happy New Year. After a Dem-happy December (Dem-cember, if you will), the GOP is back in the limelight with mixed results. The most newsworthy event, if you count media coverage, ended up being Rudy's folly. Giuliani made headlines today with a leaked document allegedly stolen from a staffer, copied, and replaced in it's original briefcase. The paper, hardly containing anything surprising, went over the possible hurdles for a Rudy candidacy.
All along I had found most of the skepticism over the former NYC mayor's candidacy a bit questionable, but now I am starting to see it. We here in Quabbin Qountry are all for seeing RWG toss his hat in because of his leadership qualities and presumably bipartisan nature, but his messy divorce and the Bernie Kerik baggage should be a tough sell especially in the Republican primaries. Granted, personal lives should be withheld from politics to an extent, but there is something to be said about one's character when he leaves his wife immediately for someone else, and then the ex- summarily hates him. It is one thing to get a blow job at your desk, it is entirely another to be boinking around so seriously. I imagine this plays doubly so in early primaries like South Carolina and Iowa.
The Kerik affair is truly the most intriguing bit of his entire campaign. Many of you will recall that Bernie once seemed like the American Dream come true - son of a New Jersey prostitute done good - and a tremendous choice to lead the Department of Homeland Security. But then came nannygate and, ultimately more devastating, Regangate. My favorite part about all of this, if Rudy ends up running and if Kerik becomes a major issue, is that OJ Simpson will play a role in Presidential politics. Judith Regan, Bernie's one time sordid lover, was recently axed from a prominent position at HarperCollins publishing allegedly for anti-Semitic comments...but clearly for her decision to publish OJ's memoir, If I Did It. The "It", of course, refers not to sex but to the murder of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman. Unbelievable. In fact, I sincerely hope this becomes an issue.
The other news, of course, pertains to Mitt Romney's filing for a Presidential exploratory committee. Much like Edwards earlier in the week, Mitt was overshadowed but both the Rudy scandal and the Ford funeral. Poor Mitt; not only did his Lieutenant get completely destroyed in the election to replace him, but he can't even make the local NPR news. At least, not when I was listening. On the bright side, at least Rom was able to make the historic Lone Walk today, following the footsteps of "Silent" Cal Coolidge, John Hancock and Michael Dukakis.
I'm Mitt Romney, and I disapprove of my 2nd page headlines.
Now for the lighter side. Let us take a moment to mock fundraising. In the spirit of Dubya's Rangers and Pioneers, Mitt Romney has decided to go political with those designated as "First Ballot Chairman" responsible for $250,000 in contributions in the campaign's first 30 days, "First Ballot Vice Chair" for $100,000 in donations, and "First Ballot Member" $50,000. Rudy, meanwhile, is going baseball, calling his top donors "Team Captain", "MVP", "All-Star" and "Slugger". "Slugger"? Wasn't that the name of Buddy Cole's softball team? Oh, those confused Republicans. And last but not least, outgoing Florida governor John "Jeb" Bush has chosen to include within his gubernatorial portrait a blackberry and a bible. You heard right, not only can he talk to God but he can e-mail him, too!
On a more somber note, my condolences go out to friends, family, and general populace who were saddened by the shooting death of a Foss High School student on school grounds this morning in Tacoma, Washington. We here in Quabbin Qountry wish, along with the rest of the world, for a more peaceful new year.
Sipping a Val Dieu,
BTB